When you think of great civilizations, you probably surface mental images of the Roman, Persian, Maya, and many others. In more recent history, colonial empires were hailed to be the pinnacle of civilization. But both the Romans and British saw their empires end. So did the Ottomans, the USSR, the list goes on… the Maya civilization also seemed to collapse out of nowhere, although their case is more mysterious and sudden than most.
Regardless, civilizations across the globe seem to follow a universal pattern. They rise to prosperity, experience a golden age, and then disintegrate. Seeing this, many theories have been created in an attempt to explain these “civilizational cycles.” If we could predict how these cycles will go, perhaps we would be able to stop the decline in its tracks. We would also need to know what factors lead to a civilizational collapse in the first place.
But our globalized world nowadays is much closer to Rome than to the Maya. The Internet, global trade, and the technology-facilitated ease of travel make the world more interconnected than ever. This being true, we must ask ourselves whether it’s possible for some type of collapse to occur at this magnitude. The Collapse of multi-ethnic and cultural empires such as the Roman and the Ottoman suggest that it is possible. An even further back look at history reveals the Bronze Age Collapse, when multiple cultures collapsed during what’s called a “transition phase.” That is, the transition to a new civilization. If something similar happens in our time, one can only wonder what that new one will be.
Looking at the collapse of many of these cultures and empires, we can draw many parallels between our modern condition and the conditions these civilizations experienced right before their collapse.
A crisis of abundance
It is often said that:
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”
― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain
A similar belief is shared by Pitirim Sorokin. Sorokin, though, looks at it from a more philosophical perspective. He categorizes a society’s cultural mentality as either ideational (spiritual needs and goals), sensate (“wine, women, and song”), and idealistic (a balance of needs and ends). Due to technological progress and prosperity, Sorokin believes that the West in particular is well on its way through the sensate phase.
Following the sensate phase, he theorizes that a society able to embrace the idealistic mentality might lead to a “universal civilization.” Of course, this would only after experiencing an inevitable fall into decadence. But this type of civilization has never surfaced before, and I personally doubt it’s possible for it to do so. Now, Sorokin places a lot of importance on technological change but neglects factors such as the loss of religious belief and national fervor.
These are the factors many sociologists and historians often ignore, but which likely play a great part in civilizational decline. Fortunately, philosophers Alexander Tyler and others summarize academic thought on civilizational stages, while also taking into account these factors.
Another good summary of these cycles:
Civilizations are birthed by visionary individuals or groups. This can be a Caesar, Lenin, or even Christ. Then civilization is promoted by a group of pioneers, such as the revolutionaries in the U.S. It is at this stage when there is a great conflict, such as the Revolutionary War, which forces people to grow spiritually and mentally. As Tyler points out, if the people in question successfully overcome this great conflict, they will have the ideal foundations to build a prosperous society.
And that’s precisely what they do. They create a prosperous civilization based on the virtues and morals accrued during their hardships. The same virtues and morals will be forgotten by later generations since they did not go through the necessary experiences to cultivate them. You can see this in how baby boomers reaped the rewards of the previous generations. Boomers were able to easily pay off education, a house, start businesses, and provide for an entire family with a stable, middle-class job. Now, Millennials and Zoomers face such economic hardships that the idea of living in a “pod” is taken somewhat seriously.
Because of this loss of values, societal institutions start to deteriorate, as individuals descent into passivity and individualism. When people are incapable or too selfish to contribute to society, dependence on some domestic or outside entity increases. This could be the government, another nation, or any entity that promises to take care of the populace. In recent times, this has been the expansion of the welfare system. In the future, it could be international organizations such as the U.N.
More on the loss of morals
An interesting development in many late-stage societies is the bending of sexual norms and expression. Androgyny is evermore present during these times, as gender norms are done away with and ideas such as transgenderism are more generally accepted. Camille Paglia calls this a “sign of cultural collapse” and points out that it has happened before. Just before their collapse, societies like the Roman, Greek, and others were the most sexually liberated they had ever been.
Also read:
Practically every society values gender norms. Traditional sexuality is part of their values. This is due to many factors, such as marriage aiding in societal stability, but they all converge on the same: conservative sexuality and gender norms. Societal cohesion depends on the norms everyone (or mostly everyone) agrees upon. The breakdown of these norms, in turn, signals a general loss of social cohesion.
Encouraging loss of cohesion is a classic subversion tactic. One of the most blatant examples of this was Israeli troops taking over television stations and broadcasting pornography to the Palestinian public. The Israelis knew that sexual liberation serves to destroy societal bonds and atomize people. They used sexual liberation as a form of subversion.
It’s no secret that the West has been sexually liberated for a long time, and more “liberation” continues to occur every day. With developments such as the acceptance of gender dysphoria in children, one sees that we are quite at the end-game when it comes to pushing sexual boundaries.
Multiculturalism and demographic change
Ghetto is a term used in the U.S. to describe minority, often impoverished neighborhoods. Americans have the inner city in mind when they think of ghettos, but Europeans have a slightly different definition. When Europeans talk about a ghetto, they think of the more historical definition. That is groups where people of a certain race or ethnicity are segregated from the rest of society.
During the past few decades, Ghettos have become a big problem in Europe. Despite the efforts made by European governments to integrate refugees and other migrants, integration has not been as successful as they would like. This stands in contrast to the U.S., where Hispanic immigrants often have a similar culture and religion to Americans. This makes it a lot easier for them to integrate into American society, compared to Arab and North-African migrants who share very little with Europeans.
Add onto this the issue of the aging demographics in the West. Westerners are not having enough children, which means that, if childbirth rates continue in the same trajectory, Westerners will become minorities in their own countries. This will happen in a matter of decades, which could be during your and my lifetimes.
With Islamist activists increasing their influence in European spheres, as far as segregating English schools based on gender. Or first-generation Hispanic immigrants not believing in some American values such as the constitution and the first amendment. Or many other types of ideological conflicts that arise from differing values, even between left and right-leaning Westerners themselves, it is becoming clear that civilizational values will likely not remain the same.
Whether the West and its interconnected neighbors collapse, or whether they just enter a new age of civilization, there will certainly be profound changes to society’s structure and values.
